Earnings Preview for Sep 14-18

This week brings the initial batch of third-quarter results. Seven early reporters from the S&P 500 - all of whom have quarters ending in August - will report: Adobe Systems (ADBE), Best Buy (BBY - Snapshot Report), Discover Financial Services (DFS), FedEx (FDX), Kroger (KR), Oracle (ORCL) and Pall (PLL). In total, we will see results from 20 companies.
So how will the third-quarter look? The Zacks Consensus Estimate calls for S&P 500 earnings of $13.50 per share, a 15.4% decline from a year prior. Going back to the week's events, the economic calendar will stay busy with inflation, manufacturing and housing data being released. * Tuesday: August Producer Price Index (PPI), August retail sales, September Empire State survey, July business inventories * Wednesday: August Consumer Price Index (CPI), August industrial production and capacity utilization, September NAHB housing market index, weekly crude inventories, weekly mortgage applications * Thursday: August housing starts and building permits, September Philadelphia Fed survey, weekly initial jobless claims, weekly natural gas inventories
President Barack Obama will speak about the financial crisis on Monday, which is also the anniversary of Lehman Brothers' collapse. The same day, Fed Governor Elizabeth Duke and Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Lacker will give speeches. Duke will discuss regulation and accounting at the AICPA's annual conference in Washington D.C. Lacker will appear before the Charlotte chapter of the Risk Management Association.
Friday will be a quadruple witching day. Stock option contracts, stock futures contracts, market index options and market futures contracts will all expire. This could lead to increased volatility.
We are in a fear and greed market with a relatively small group of traders playing hot potato. Bonds are doing extremely well (fear), while the S&P 500 continues move higher (greed). It doesn't make sense, but stocks are trending higher. Dow 10,000 is only a few good days away and the fast money remains in control.
Companies That Could Issue Positive Earnings Surprises One analyst just raised his fiscal third-quarter profit forecast on Adobe Systems (ADBE). The revision pushed the Zacks Consensus Estimate a penny higher to 28 cents per share. The most accurate estimate is more bullish at 32 cents per share. Though the software company has only matched expectations over the past 2 quarters, it did top during the previous 4 quarters. Adobe is scheduled to report on Tuesday, Sep 15, after the close of trading.
Three analysts raised their fiscal second-quarter projections on Best Buy (BBY) over the past few weeks. The changes have resulted in a Zacks Consensus Estimate of 41 cents per share, a penny higher than the average forecast of a month ago. The most accurate estimate is slightly more bullish at 42 cents per share. BBY has topped expectations for 3 consecutive quarters. Best Buy is scheduled to report on Tuesday, Sep 15, before the start of trading.
FedEx Corporation (FDX) preannounced fiscal first-quarter earnings of 58 cents per share today. The number is well above both the company's guidance and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 43 cents per share. Fiscal second-quarter guidance also looks strong at a range of 65 to 95 cents per share. Though the surprise should be baked into the price, if reaction to the conference call is favorable, there is the possibility of additional upside. FDX is scheduled to report on Thursday, Sep 17, before the start of trading.
Companies That Could Issue Negative Earnings Surprises Earnings estimate trends are not providing a clear indication that any of the scheduled companies will disappoint.

by Charles Rotblut http://www.zacks.com/.

Double Dip Recovery W or V Shaped Recovery?

The match is set. It’s GDP versus Unemployment and we are currently only in the mid-rounds of this heavy weight match. Up until our current round we have seen some back and forth between the two fighters. GDP has taken some pretty heavy punches on the ropes and even received a KO count in the initial rounds. Unemployment on the other hand has been growing stronger through the match, but in the most recent rounds this growth in strength has been increasing at diminishing increments while the visual impairment, from the heavy hits GDP has taken, seems to be on the mend.All the while, the stock market crowd has moved from a state of despair and frenzy to one of optimism. The state of despair came as the economy tanked and the amount of unemployed grew at a staggering pace. The reversal to a state of optimism has grown at just as staggering a pace; however, this optimism has brewed as a result of analysts dire forecasts not being substantiated for the most part, not because the economy has been seriously improving.So, where is this match going in the final rounds and whose forecasts can we trust?This is where things get interesting. Do you want to believe the majority, the general consensus of all the Analysts that didn’t predict this recession, or do you want to believe the minority, a small group of analysts that were credited with predicting the current recession?Let’s face it, most analysts simply wait for someone else to make a prediction and then they try to pull together the evidence to support that claim and call it their own. This is obviously not the way to accurate forecasts. On the other side though, the naysayer minority forecasts that diverge from the crowd sometime just make their predictions different than the consensus to receive attention.Here’s what we know now:General Consensus• We are in recovery mode• Unemployment in America should top out around 10%• Jobs will continue to be lost in the coming months but at a slowed pace• Company Balance Sheets are improving and expansion is around the cornerNaysayer Analyst (predictors of the recession)• We are in a short term up cycle in the market with a further down turn to occur in the coming months• Unemployment will pass 10% and likely reach levels nearer to 13%• Job losses have slowed, but are still being lost and will keep being lost for longer than the majority think• Companies will not begin hiring again for some time• A total meltdown of the financial system is still a real potentialI personally want to be an optimist, I really do; however, there are so many factors pointing me to a more pessimistic view of the stock market and economy in general.1. Consumer mentality has shifted. People are not buying like they used to; they are becoming savers instead of spenders2. Debt levels of the average consumer are still at unprecedented levels and bankruptcies are still high.3. Banks have not been required to disclose losses on their balance sheets.4. The Bank Stress Test was based on 10% unemployment. Anything above that would make the test faulty in predicting defaults of the remaining banks.5. Commercial Real Estate Vacancies are on the rise and these properties are highly levered with similar NINJA mortgages to what was written for Residential Real Estate. These mortgages are beginning to default and could lead to a second mortgage crisis in America. Look at General Growth Properties Inc (GGWPQ), used to be the largest REIT in the US. (this has the potential to be the knockout punch.)6. The American Dollar is still collapsing. As the dollar decreases Americans are able to afford to less and less imports leading to even less global trade.7. There is a stock market bubble forming in China due to lack lending standards. Chinese citizens are can easily borrow with no collateral and have been throwing everything they have into the stock market there. A short drop could cause a snowball here that would be felt throughout the world.8. Oil prices continue to rise and this will make goods more expensive due to higher transport costs.9. The stock market has rebounded far too quickly from this recession and this rebound has been based on purely speculation with lower and lower volume as prices increase.10. Most fund manager have been taking profits and getting ready for the next shock wave in the stock market.11. Gold Prices are still increasing as more and more money is diverted from the stock market into gold because of many fund managers concerns about the current market environment.12. The US has thrown a ton of money at fighting this recession and that is leading to a lack of confidence in the US$ around the rest of the world. This could lead to a drastic drop in the value of the US Dollar.13. The recession stimulus spending needs to be paid for and this will happen through increased taxes, which will detract from future growth.These are just of a few of my concerns on the horizon that make me feel a bit pessimistic about the current stock market environment. There is also a list of positives, but I am still swayed this way for now.If you are interested in what the analysts that predicted the recession are forecasting, take a look at Thomas Watson’s article “Economic forecast: Double Trouble“

http://www.investingincanada.info/

Uk Financial Spread Betting

Does the term 'spread betting' bring an image of galloping horses to your mind? If so, then perhaps you should see the more serious side of betting, namely Financial Spread Betting. Financial spread betting is a term which is used to define a specific type of futures contract wherein you are not required to take physical possession of any asset. As the term suggests, all that you are required to do is speculate about the future price of the market or asset class.Financial Spread Betting in the UK works on the principle of 'bid' and 'offer', also known as "Buy" and "Sell". If you want to bet on a financial market to go up, you "Buy" it. If you want to bet on a financial market to go down, you "Sell" it. Your profit or loss will be decided by the course that the markets undertake.The sentiments of the market are influenced by a variety of global factors, hence solid fundamental research should help.Spread betting can be projected in a negative light by brokers for the simple reason that they do not receive a commission. Personally, I find the fact that there are no brokers a good thing. This speeds up the process and it also means that there are no brokers fees or commissions.Although there are certain inherent risks associated with financial spread betting, in the UK a few proactive measures, such as a Stop Loss mechanism can help limit you downside. You can also try trading via a Demo Account, ie a free account where you trade with virtual funds. Financial spread betting carries a high level of risk and, therefore, a third important risk-reducing option is simply to trade with smaller stake. As with all investments, you should only trade with funds that you can afford to lose. In the UK and Ireland, spread betting offers you tax free* benefits as there is no stamp duty and your profits are tax free.You can financial spread bet on a wide range of global markets such as UK Shares, German shares, US shares, Crude Oil, Gold, Pound/Dollar, Euro/Yen etc. You can also spread bet on indices like the FTSE 100 and the Dow Jones.However, note that whatever you trade, this form of investment may not be suitable for all classes of investor. Make sure you fully understand the risks involved and, where necessary, seek independent financial advice.*Tax laws are subject to change and may differ if you pay tax in a jurisdiction other than the U.K. --

>Article Source: http://www.eArticlesOnline.comAbout the Author:Robert Thomas is a financial journalist and a seasoned spread betting writer offering strategic views on stocks and shares, commodities and forex markets